𝙋𝙧𝙤𝙟𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙍𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙛𝙖𝙡𝙡 𝙄𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙣𝙨𝙞𝙩𝙮 𝘿𝙪𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙁𝙧𝙚𝙦𝙪𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙮 𝙍𝙚𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙝𝙞𝙥𝙨 𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙧 𝘾𝙡𝙞𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝘾𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙚: 𝘼 𝘾𝙖𝙨𝙚 𝙎𝙩𝙪𝙙𝙮 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙚 𝘾𝙞𝙩𝙮

Projected Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Relationships under Climate Change: A Case Study Thane City

S. S. Pujari (Veermata Jijabai Technological Institute, Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Mumbai, Maharashtra, 400019, India)
A. S. Wayal (Veermata Jijabai Technological Institute, Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Mumbai, Maharashtra, 400019, India)

Article ID: 4995

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30564/jees.v4i2.4995

Abstract

Climate change is the most important factor to increase in short-duration high-intensity rainfall and consequent flooding. Intensity-DurationFrequency (IDF) curves are commonly used tools in Stormwater design, so a method to derive future IDF curves including climate change effect could be necessary for the mainstreaming climate change information into storm water planning. The objective of the present study is to define a mechanism to reflect the effect of climate change into the projected rainfall IDF relationships. For this, the continuously observed hourly rainfall data from 1969 to 2018 were divided into five subgroups. Then the IDF curve of each subgroup is defined. The rainfall intensity for the next 30 years was then estimated using a linear regression model. The obtained result indicates that for the same duration and for the same return period, the rainfall intensity is likely to increase over time: 17% (2019-2028), 25% (2029-2038) and 32% (2039-2048). However, the findings presented in this paper will be useful for local authorities and decision makers in terms of improving stormwater design and future flood damage will be avoided.

Keywords

Climate change; Rainfall analysis; Projected IDF relationships; IDF curves; Thane city

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