𝑱𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒏𝒂𝒍 𝒐𝒇 𝑨𝒕𝒎𝒐𝒔𝒑𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒄 𝑺𝒄𝒊𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝑹𝒆𝒔𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒄𝒉 | 𝑽𝒐𝒍.5, 𝑰𝒔𝒔.4
👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇𝑸𝒖𝒊𝒄𝒌 𝑮𝒖𝒊𝒅𝒆👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v5i4.5081Abstract
An attempt has been made in the present research to simulate a deadly flash-flood event over the City of Skopje, Macedonia on 6 August 2016. A cloud model ensemble forecast method is developed to simulate a super-cell storm's initiation and evolutionary features. Sounding data are generated using an ensemble approach, that utilizes a triple-nested WRF model. A three-dimensional (3-D) convective cloud model (CCM) with a very fine horizontal grid resolution of 250-m is initialized, using the initial representative sounding data, derived from the WRF 1-km forecast outputs. CCM is configured and run with an open lateral boundary conditions LBC, allowing explicit simulation of convective scale processes. This preliminary study showed that the ensemble approach has some advantages in the generation of the initial data and the model initialization. The applied method minimizes the uncertainties and provides a more qualitative-quantitative assessment of super-cell storm initiation, cell structure, evolutionary properties, and intensity. A high-resolution 3-D run is capable to resolve detailed aspects of convection, including high-intensity convective precipitation. The results are significant not only from the aspect of the cloud model's ability to provide a qualitative-quantitative assessment of intense precipitation but also for a deeper understanding of the essence of storm development, its vortex dynamics, and the meaning of micro-physical processes for the production and release of large amounts of precipitation that were the cause of the catastrophic flood in an urban area. After a series of experiments and verification, such a system could be a reliable tool in weather services for very short-range forecasting (nowcasting) and early warning of weather disasters.
Keywords
WRF triple nested model; Convective cloud model; Ensemble initialization; 3-D numerical simulation; Flash-flood event; Super-cell storm
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v5i4.4809Abstract
Rangelands dominate arid and semi-arid lands of the Greater Horn ofAfrica (GHA) region, whereby pastoralism being the primary source oflivelihood. The pastoral livelihood is affected by the seasonal variabilityof pasture and water resources. This research sought to design a grid-basedforage monitoring and prediction model for the cross-border areas of theGHA region. A technique known as Geographically Weighted Regressionwas used in developing the model with monthly rainfall, temperature,soil moisture, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).Rainfall and soil moisture had a high correlation with NDVI, and thusformed the model development parameters. The model performed wellin predicting the available forage biomass at each grid-cell with March-May and October-December seasons depicting a similar pattern but witha different magnitude in ton/ha. The output is critical for actionable earlywarning over the GHA region’s rangeland areas. It is expected that thismode can be used operationally for forage monitoring and prediction overthe eastern Africa region and further guide the regional, national, sub-national actors and policymakers on issuing advisories before the season.
Keywords
Prediction; Forage Biomass; Rangelands; Pastoralism; Early Warning; East Africa
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v5i4.5068Abstract
An attempt has been made in the present study to forecast fog with adiagnostic method using the outputs of global NWP model. The diagnosticmethod is based on the combination of thresholds of meteorologicalvariables involved in fog formation. The thresholds are computed usingthe observations during fog. These thresholds are applied to the output of aglobal NWP model for forecasting fog. The occurrence of fog is a commonphenomenon during winter season over the northern plains of India. Thediagnostic method is used to predict fog occurrences over three stations innorth India. The proposed method is able to predict both occurrences andnon-occurrences of fog at all the three stations. It is found that 94% of thefog events forecasted by the model using the diagnostic method have beenactually observed at the selected stations. The performance of method inpredicting fog is found best over Delhi with the highest accuracy (0.61) andprobability of detection (0.60). The study signifies that diagnostic approachbased on the output of a global model is a useful tool for predicting fogover a single location.
Keywords
Fog; Diagnostic method; Northern plains; Winter; Threshold
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v5i4.5104Abstract
Indoor air pollution in buildings puts people at risk of developing respiratoryand cardiovascular diseases. Particulate matter (PM) exposure is known tocause these health issues. Preliminary efforts were made in this study to assessthe quantity and quality of PM1.0, PM2.5, and PM10 present in an abattoir and aresidential building in northern Nigeria. Canree A1 low-cost sensor was used tomonitor the locations, 8 hourly for two weeks. The results showed that the average values (μg/m3 ) of PM1.0, PM2.5, and PM10 in an abattoir were 62.74, 161.94, and 199.08, respectively, and in a residential building were 28.70, 83.31, and 103.71. The average Air Quality Index (AQI) of the abattoir office was VeryUnhealthy, while the living room of the residential building was unhealthy. ThePM2.5, and PM10 levels were higher than the international (WHO) and national(FMEnv) standard limits, indicating a potential danger to building occupants.It is expected that the indoor environment of the locations will be improved bythe use of good ventilators (adequate windows and doors) and the provision ofgood extractors.
Keywords
Pollutants; Health Risks; Air Quality Index; Living Room; Office; Indoor Pollution
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v5i4.5121Abstract
Here the authors examine whether bell sounds can have an impact onambient aerosol levels and size distribution under atmospheric conditions.The authors present calculation results for acoustic coagulation by churchbell sounds for a range of ambient aerosol types. The results show thatfor orthokinetic sonic agglomeration, while the frequency spectrum ofchurch bells is ideal for causing coagulation of ambient aerosols, the soundpressure level (SPL) becomes too low for an effect. However, for verypolluted conditions, at extremely short distances from the bell dust aerosolscan readily undergo sonic coagulation.
Keywords
Sound; Aerosols; particulate matter; Sound pressure level
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